Dooms day from KJPP - Lokgp

We are headed for stagflation. It is a situation where high inflation

occurs and economic growth is stagnant or negative.

Inflation is occuring as our paper money (which is link to the USD)

depreciates over time, and more due to the decrease of interest rates

in US.

Our current inflation is driven by cost, and depreciation of ringgit

(Not demand driven)

As inflation creeps up, wages are unable to chase up and that tightens

our spending habits and capabilities. Everyone will hold back on

purchase, big ticket spending, corporations will stop expanding due to

lack of demand for services, reducing budgets causing stagnant/

negative economic growth - aka recession.

As cost goes up, in order to remain profitable corporation increase

prices and reduce work force, which further increase inflation and

unemployment. Which goes on reducing the buyers for the services/goods

offered by the corporation. Inducing a spiraling effect that further

worsen the situation.

High prices and no growth. That's stagflation.

This will continue until there is correct interventions in policies.

Unemployment increases, businesses losses money. Property prices free

fall. Raw materials prices can increase all the want, but there will

be no buyers. Demand falls, therefore prices falls, as no one can

afford them.

Intervention:

As inflation and recession is contradictory to each other. The only

way to go is:

First:

Tackle inflation. Increase of lending interest to twice of the

inflation rate, I pressume would be around 28%. Immediately stopping

speculation and reducing inflation. Growth will be stagnant.

Second:

Once inflation is solved and prices creeps down, new growth projects

to be launch to encourage development, consumption, to bring back

growth and effectively get out of recession.

This may take years and up to 10 years.

The main cause:

The insolvency of US banks and the bankrupt of USA will bring down the

value of the USD comparable to toilet paper. So will the ringgit.

Food, commodity prices soar sky high. We shall face hyperinflation.

Where our fiat money can't buy anything as prices of goods - food -

soar 100X !

The impact:

High unemployment. Soaring food prices. An age of Depression.

Main issue about buying a house now:

If you are unemployed, how will you service your loan especially with

such high interest rates? You will be driven out from your house.

Sleeping on the street and your house auctioned off.

Best suggestion: Don't purchase any big item, rent at all means. Save

money and purchase food and be ready in case you got laid-off.Or buy

fully cash down. Don't buy cars now.

Solution: If you have to buy a house now, go for fixed rate loan from

insurance company at 6% such as AIA.

My argument:

It doesn't matter whether we export mainly to USA or not. But when USA

goes into stagflation, Europe will follow suite, then China, then

Asia. China can't sell their low cost labour products to anyone else.

How could there be demand for growth? Oil demand reduces dramatically

as no growth affecting the Middle EAst. Eventually Malaysia is also

affected. Buying power and food prices will be main concern.

Greatest myth: Asia economy has decoupled from US economy.

We are living in a very perilous times.

What we can do now?:

Sell off and repay loans as much as possible. Reduce consumption and

brace for recession. Stock up on food. Withdraw all your EPF money.

Store your buying power in physical gold. Keep your job. Prudently run

your business. Its no longer about investment, it about capital

preservation right now.

The key: Use common sense to protect yourself. Be PRUDENT.

What if I got it all wrong?

You loose nothing. You purchased your house at a higher price, so does

everyone else. You have too much food in your house but you can still

eat them and save money avoiding the inflation and price increase. You

still have your job and your teh tarik. Your EPF money will still be

safely parked in gold which becomes your investment vehicle. You save

more money by not buying a car.

BUT what if I got it all right?

You have everything to loose.

Think about it. In a situation where the negative consequences

outweighs the positive, it is better to be safe rather than risking

it.

May God help us all.